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Focus on Ukraine, May 24-30, 2010 - NATO. NEUTRALITY. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO): Quo vadis for Ukraine or the question of three “NO’s”

May 31, 2010
Focus on Ukraine

 
Focus on Ukraine May 24 - 30, 2010 (PDF format)

 І. OVERVIEWS OF POLITICAL EVENTS OF THE WEEK

May 24

Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Kostyantyn Hryshchenko said in an interview for the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza that Ukraine’s accession to the European Union is just a matter of time.
He stressed that the notion of the Euro-integration of Ukraine is gaining the support of the majority of the population and leading political forces. Hryshchenko assured that the government of Ukraine is ready to take pragmatic steps towards harmonizing the lives of Ukrainians with European standards.
At the same time, the head of the MFA is convinced that the improvement of Ukrainian-Russian relations will not interfere with Ukraine’s European integration. On the contrary, this will foster the process.

Students of the Kyiv Mohylanskiy Academy are preparing a lawsuit to file against Premier Mykola Azarov for his failure to recognize the Ukrainian language.
The students are motivated by the fact that Article 10 of the Law of Ukraine “On Language” requires that top-level government officials should be fluent in the official state language. Not recognizing or speaking the Ukrainian language in the workplace is considered a professional disparity.

May 25

President Viktor Yanukovych said in an interview on Ukrainian TV that local government elections will be held on October 31.
The president explained that the “Constitution requires holding elections this year, which means that postponing them to a later date is a violation of the Constitution”. The head of state said elections should be held in accordance with a new law. Specifically, in the rural areas deputies should be elected on a majoritarian (first-past-the-post) basis, while in cities, regions and provinces elections should be held on the basis of open party lists.

NATO Deputy Secretary General on Defense Policy and Planning Jirzhi Shedivi said Ukraine’s execution of the Annual National Program of Preparations for Accession to NATO without intentions of gaining membership to the Alliance is unprecedented.
At the same time, Shedivi agreed that if the course of Ukraine’s foreign policy changes, the country’s leadership may review the current legislation on issues of participation with NATO and declare initiatives of further cooperation with the Alliance.
Shedivi also stated that the government of Ukraine assured NATO of the continued participation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in all four peacekeeping operations under the leadership of NATO.

Leader of the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko called on local councils to vote against joint business ventures between Ukraine and Russia. The former premier of Ukraine said in a meeting with opposition forces in political movements Poltava that voting must be held in local councils against the formation of joint ventures with Russia that contradict the national interests of Ukraine.
As a reminder, on April 30 Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin proposed a merger of Russia’s Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy. In reciprocation, Ukraine’s Premier Mykola Azarov promised to consider the proposal of his Russian colleague.

Member of the Party of Regions Olena Bondarenko informed that the party is drafting a new law that will re-introduce the Russian language in education, the film industry and the judiciary.
At the same time, Minister of Education Serhiy Tabachnyk stated a norm requiring 15 the petitions of parents to open a Russian language class in a school in Kyiv is currently in effect. Tabachnyk promised that such a norm will be applied in other regions of the country.

May 26

The Ukraine-NATO Joint Working Group on military reform held its 8th meeting in Kyiv.
As First Deputy Secretary of the NSDC Stepan Havrysh announced, Ukraine is refraining from forced admission to military-political alliances that will allow it to focus more attention and allocate more money to conducting socio-economic reforms in the country on a nationwide scale. Havrysh also affirmed that Ukraine will establish strategic partnership with Russia and maintain its political dialog with NATO.
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kostyantyn Yeliseyev stressed the importance of mutual pragmatic cooperation with NATO on non-military issues. NATO Deputy Secretary General on Defense Policy and Planning Jirzhi Shedivi recalled that the position of the Alliance regarding Ukraine remains unchanged – NATO will continue to render expert assistance to Ukraine in conducting reforms in the sphere of security and defense.

President Viktor Yanukovych stated in an interview on Ukrainian TV channels that Ukraine does not recognize the claims of Russia to all property of the former Soviet Union beyond its borders.
As a reminder, on May18 Head of the Presidential Property Management Department of the Russian Federation Vladimir Kozhin expressed his hope that Ukraine will agree to conveyance of all property of the former Soviet Union located abroad to Russia.

Head of the Information Department of Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Voloshyn informed that Ukraine and the EU plan to cancel visas for short-term trips.
On June 15 a concrete plan for introducing a visa-free regime for short-term visits of up to 90 days will be discussed at a meeting of the EU Cooperation Council in Luxembourg. The plan is scheduled for approval in October at the Ukraine-EU Summit.
The first step for execution of this plan is the ratification of two conventions of the Council of Europe by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the protection of personal information, in particular the limitation of access to automated databases that contain information about citizens and prevention of human trafficking.

VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn informed that the date of holding local elections will be agreed to during consultations with factions of the Verkhovna Rada.
Lytvyn criticized the initiative of the president and the Party of Regions regarding the date of October 31 set for the elections. The speaker said given this the notion of reform of local self-government can be forgotten for another five years.

May 27

President Viktor Yanukovych said Ukraine is not ready to become a member of NATO during his visit to Lviv.
He explained that according to the criteria of NATO, there should be a general consent of the majority of the people. Today, there is no such consent. The president sees relations with NATO on a partnership basis.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Kostyantyn Hryshchenko also said the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO has been stricken from the order of the day.

Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych announced that next week he will present a concept of economic reforms, which in his opinion will unite a large part of society. The president said the main task at this stage is fighting poverty and improving the economy.
The Russian language was granted regional status in Crimea. In the opinion of lawmakers, this resolution will protect the rights of the Russian-language population and will preclude ethnic political conflicts.
The Crimean parliament also submitted a proposal to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to support a bill that will guarantee the free development of the Russian language and other languages of national minorities.

May 28

The issue of Ukraine joining the Treaty on the Organization of Collective Security (a military-political alliance created by CIS countries) is not being reviewed purely out of principle, said Director of the Information Policy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Voloshyn.
He explained that although this issue was raised during the recent visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Kyiv, Ukraine is not planning to become a joint the treaty as a neutral country.

Minister of Education Dmytro Tabachnyk said on the Komsomol Pravda of Ukraine hotline that children in elementary schools will be taught that the Holodomor (Great Famine) was not genocide against the Ukrainian nation.
He said that in the curriculum of schools in Ukraine it should be “precisely written that the Great Famine of 1933 was a mutual tragedy of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan”.
As a reminder, Russia to this day takes the stance that the famine in 1930s was “a mutual tragedy of the people of the USSR”. In 2006, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine acknowledged the famine genocide against the Ukrainian nation.

May 29

Head of the General Staff of Ukraine General Ivan Svida tendered his resignation due to his disagreement with the actions of the current president.
Svida headed the General Staff since November of last year. As a reminder, in March 2010 Admiral of the Naval Fleet Ihor Tenyukh and Colonel-General of the Air Force Ivan Rusnak tendered their resignations.

Ilko Kucheriv, the founder and Director of Democratic Initiatives Foundation, untimely passed away on May 29, 2010. Ilko Kucheriv was a famous public figure, an active participant of the formation of Ukrainian state, who made a significant input into civil society development.

Ilko Kucheriv dedicated more than 20 years of his life to creation and development of Ukrainian state, rule of democracy, freedom and human rights.

Ilko’s self-consistency in advocacy of national interests of Ukraine, his persistence in regard to the issues of European integration became the model of self-giving devotion to Ukrainian people and the State for many people.

II. ANALYTICAL REFERENCE

NATO. NEUTRALITY. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO): Quo vadis for Ukraine or the question of three “NO’s”

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Minister of Foreign Affairs Kostyantyn Hryshchenko said the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO has been stricken from the agenda, though official Kyiv will continue to partnership relations with the Alliance.
Hryshchenko pointed out that the “notion of Ukraine’s accession to NATO will exacerbate the situation in terms of regional security and President Viktor Yanukovych underscored that “Ukraine will conduct an open policy as a neutral state” and will “actively participate in creating a system of collective security in Europe”.
What does Ukraine stand to lose and gain from such statements and does a neutral status comply with Ukraine’s economy and preserving its bona fide independence.
After analyzing the situation, the following conclusions were drawn: NATO is pragmatically untimely, neutral status is economically not expedient and the Treaty on the Organization of Collective Security is dangerous in essence.

NATO

According to the Law of Ukraine “On the Basis of the National Security of Ukraine” of 2003, the priorities of national interests (Article 6) are as follows:
• the development of civil society;
• preserving sovereignty of the state, territorial integrity, inviolability of national borders and blocking intervention into the internal affairs of Ukraine;
• зensuring the development and functioning of the Ukrainian language as an official state language in all spheres of social life on the entire territory of Ukraine;
• the integration of Ukraine into the European political, economic, legal and security sphere was set aside in a separate clause.

In the opinion of narrowly qualified experts, Ukraine was “a perfect match to the NATO concept and the ideology of accession to the Alliance was reinforced, first and foremost, by the tight budget of the military that was protracted due to many years of planning. Joining NATO would be politically and economically beneficial for Ukraine”.
The second key factor is that Ukraine is the only country on the post-Soviet territory that has shown real progress in the development of democracy and the implementation of democratic principles. Ukraine set a goal of joining both the European security system and the European system of values.
With the advent of the new government, the priorities of national interests have changed. Membership in the Alliance has been stricken from the agenda. The actions of the current leadership in Ukraine cast doubt on whether or not the president and his team ascribe to European values that first and foremost envisage respect for human rights and the principle of supremacy of the law, democracy and tolerance
Given today’s political realities, Ukraine’s membership in NATO is not realistic and almost inopportune, given that the statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the president on striking the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO from the agenda were voiced somewhat prematurely prior to the passing of the new bill on the fundamental principles of the domestic and foreign policy of Ukraine. After all, it is the parliament that defines the basis of foreign policy.
This law will likely have legislative grounding of Ukraine’s neutral status and there are no doubts that the existing pro-presidential majority will adopt such a law and the president will rubberstamp it.

NEUTRALITY

As for neutrality, the following questions arise – is there a clear understanding on the part of the country’s leadership of the meaning of this status, is it realistic for Ukraine’s economy and does it guarantee the independence of Ukraine?
The president of Ukraine underscores: “Ukraine will conduct an open policy of a neutral state and actively participate in creating a system of collective security in Europe”. The status of neutrality excludes such activeness. The stationing of a military base of a foreign country – i.e. the Russian Black Sea Fleet, extended to 2042 – is not compatible with the notion of neutrality.
Secondly, “neutrality is an expensive luxury”. Taking into account the realities of Ukraine’s economy, the country cannot afford the status of neutrality – provision of all necessary financial resources for mobilization to guarantee security as a neutral state. This is because today sufficient funds are not being allocated to the armed forces of Ukraine and it cannot afford to cover the rising costs of a ensuring a status of neutrality. In such conditions, Ukraine “must spend US $ 45-60 billion over the next seven years in order to create a full-blown defense system that would not require financial assistance from its allies”. Furthermore, so far nobody has put forth any additional arguments as to how to neutrality can enhance Ukraine’s security.
Thirdly, Ukraine’s neutrality is mainly beneficial for Russia, which is trying to convince Ukraine to join the Treaty on the Organization of Collective Security.

Collective Security Treaty Organization

Today, Ukraine basically has no foreign policy. Kyiv is as independent in its foreign policy as Moscow permits. Entrenching the status of neutrality could draw Ukraine into a military bloc and now a military-political bloc under the aegis of Russia – namely, the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
The issue is for the Ukrainian government to not trade off the country’s independence for personal business interests. The game of national interests is very risky and could result in their loss. While the new leadership in Kyiv is in a state of euphoria, Moscow is devising its geopolitical interests.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Today, the main geopolitical players are reviewing and reforming their concepts and strategies of security. Firstly, on May 27 the U.S. publicly announced a new strategy for the country’s national security. Secondly, NATO member countries are devising a new strategy. Thirdly, Russia has announced the concluding of a new agreement on European security. For Ukraine, time is the best medicine in the current foreign and domestic political situation.
In truth, there are not than many problems regarding the neutral status of Ukraine. Conclusion – at the moment there is no need to rush headlong into legislatively fixing a status of neutrality as it narrows maneuverability in terms of strategy and will do more harm than good in the long-run.
Ukraine to this day is de-facto a neutral country. This is precisely why acknowledging de-facto neutrality and a certain moratorium of five years on discussing and resolving the issue of military-political blocs and neutrality is the ideal solution for the moment.

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“Focus on Ukraine” – a weekly publication of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation that offers insight into the main political events in Ukraine, as well as commentary and recommendations of experts in a narrow field.

This publication is party of a project that is realized with the support of UNITER. The content of the publication is the property of DIF and does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of UNITER.

Experts:
Ilko Kucheriv
Oleksandr Potekhin
Valeriy Chaly
Natalya Yakymchuk

The following people worked on this publication:
Editor-in-chief: Iryna Filipchuk
Project Coordinator: Natalya Yakymchuk

 



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