Declaration “National Exit Poll 2010” Consortium
The National Exit Poll 2010 Consortium
conducted a meticulous analysis of the results of the exit poll we
conducted during the first round of Presidential Elections in
Ukraine on January 17, 2010.
As the organizers of this poll, we declare that, in accordance with
our own findings and those of international auditors (Levada
Center, Moscow, Russia and the Institute of Public Affairs, Warsaw,
Poland), the National Exit Poll 2010 was conducted in full
compliance with international professional and ethical
standards.
Concerning the methodological problems that arose, we declare the
following:
1. Due to lack financing we were forced to reduce the number of
polling locations from 300 to 240, resulting in a greater scale of
error than we initially expected.
2. The results of our poll and the results of the Central Election
Commission (CEC) differed by 3.5% for Victor Yanukovych and 2.1%
for Yulia Tymoshenko. Based on our analysis, we can explain 1% of
the difference for Victor Yanukovych as the result of random
error.
3. The remaining 2.5% difference for Victor Yanukovych can be
attributed to errors in the selection of respondents at the polling
stations and to the peculiarities of voting on January 17. It may
be the case that the difference in our results and official voting
results was caused by our sample methodology, which did not account
for the number of votes that were cast at home (the number of votes
cast at home, according to media reports, was approximately 3.15%).
Moreover, our field work was essentially completed by 18:00 on
Election Day, while some polling stations saw voter mobilization
rise right before the close of polling stations – something not
recorded in previous elections.
4. The differences in the results of the National Exit Poll 2010
and the other five exit polls can be primarily attributed to the
deliberate use of a methodology that guarantees the independence of
exit poll results from CEC data on voter participation and the
number of registered voters. The results of the other exit polls
were dependent, in one way or another, on this data. Our
methodology was developed in 2004 when data provided by the CEC was
questionable. It is based on international experience, adapted by
Ukrainian and international experts and proved to be trustworthy
during the parliamentary elections in 2006 and 2007. During our
analysis, when we factored in corrections based on CEC voter
turnout data, the results of the National Exit Poll 2010 reflected
CEC official results.
5. We do not have enough information about the exit polls conducted
by other firms. Thus we call on them to reveal their polling
methodologies and, after the elections are over, submit all the raw
data to Ukraine’s sociological archives, which are open to
professional scrutiny. This data contains unique information that
is important for understanding electoral behavior and for planning
the future development of the state.
6. We would also like to inform the public that in the second round
of presidential elections, all exit polls can find themselves in a
situation similar to ours: the results could be vastly divergent
because all the points gained within the margin of error by one
candidate will be lost by the other candidate. Thus a margin of
error of 2.5% can result in a 5% difference in the candidates’
results. If one candidate beats the other by only a small margin,
the exit polls might show the other’s victory.
7. Finally, in conducting the exit poll for the second round of
Ukraine’s presidential elections, we will eliminate the
shortcomings of the methodology we employ and will separately show
the results of the National Exit Poll 2010 factoring in CEC voter
turnout data.
Ilko Kucheriv,
Director, Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Volodymyr Paniotto,
General Director, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
Anatoliy Rachok,
General Director, Oleksandr Razumkov Ukrainian Center of Economic
and Political Research
January 27, 2010
- March 24, 2009
A declaration of suicide or a path to a civilized world? (Polemics about an anti-NATO book) - September 15, 2009
An appeal of Ukraine's intellectuals, politicians and civic activists to parliaments, governments and peoples of the world - October 25, 2009
International Conference «For Our Freedom and Yours! For Our Common Future!» - October 26, 2009
For Our Freedom and Yours! For Our Common Future! - October 26, 2009
V?clav Havel - October 26, 2009
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski - October 26, 2009
Remarks by Carl Gershman, President of the NED - January 15, 2010
Description of the National Exit Poll 2010 project during the 2010 Presidential Elections in Ukraine - January 15, 2010
The National Exit Poll 2010 Oversight Council has been formed - January 15, 2010
Ukrainian users of social networks will be the first to learn the results of the exit polls
Begin Previous page 1 2 3 Next Page End
^ Top